Paytm, officially known as One 97 Communications Ltd, is expected to report a 35-37% drop in sales for the Q3 results. Despite this decline in sales, the company is likely to report a profit for the third quarter, thanks to exceptional gains from the sale of Paypay Stock Acquisition Rights. According to YES Securities, the company’s payments services revenue is expected to grow by 10% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), while financial services revenue is predicted to increase by 25% QoQ. Overall, the company’s revenue from operations is expected to grow by 11% QoQ.
Paytm Revenue and Expenses Projections
YES Securities also estimates that Paytm’s revenue for the quarter will fall by 35.4% year-on-year (YoY), amounting to Rs 1,842.40 crore. Despite this, the company’s expenses (excluding Payment Processing Charges and ESOP Expense) are expected to grow by just 3% QoQ. This is an improvement compared to the 13% drop in expenses in the previous quarter. The company’s Ebitda margin (excluding other income and before ESOP cost) is projected to improve by 575 basis points (bps) QoQ, reaching -5.4%.
Stock Performance and Market Outlook
Ahead of the quarterly results, Paytm’s shares were trading at Rs 893.25, down by 0.77%. The stock has fallen by 10% in 2025 so far. Despite this decline, MOFSL (Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited) expects Paytm’s operating profitability to improve. The brokerage predicts that Paytm’s disbursements and gross merchandise value (GMV) may show a sequential increase. The total revenue growth is expected to improve, and traction in new business verticals will be a key factor to watch in the upcoming results.
MOFSL also expects Paytm to report an adjusted loss of Rs 356.10 crore for the quarter. The revenue is predicted to be Rs 1,800 crore, which represents a 36.9% drop YoY. However, the brokerage predicts that GMV will increase by 10% QoQ, reaching Rs 4.9 lakh crore. Revenue from operations is expected to rise by 8% QoQ, and contribution profit is forecast to grow by 14% QoQ, reaching Rs 1,012 crore. This will likely improve the contribution margin to 56.6%.
Future Outlook for Paytm
In a recent note, Emkay Global highlighted the NPCI approval as a major positive for Paytm. The approval removes a significant regulatory overhang, which should help the company rebuild its Monthly Transacting User (MTU) base in the next 12-18 months. This will help Paytm cross-sell retail financial products such as loans, insurance, and wealth products, thereby improving revenue per user. The brokerage also noted that continued strong growth in merchant device subscription revenue, a rising share of UPI transactions, and a growing merchant loan business would contribute to Paytm’s early path to profitability by FY26E.
While Paytm is expected to report a drop in sales for the December quarter, its exceptional gains and improving operating profitability are expected to help the company make a profit. The company’s future looks promising with strong growth in financial services, merchant loans, and new business verticals. The recent regulatory approval and the company’s focus on cost optimization should also help Paytm achieve profitability in the coming years.
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